{"id":3384,"date":"2026-02-18T12:02:28","date_gmt":"2026-02-18T12:02:28","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/journals.amssr.org\/grjesd\/?p=3384"},"modified":"2026-02-18T12:02:34","modified_gmt":"2026-02-18T12:02:34","slug":"exchange-rate-depreciation-and-growth-performance-an-empirical-analysis-of-nigerias-naira","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/journals.amssr.org\/grjesd\/2026\/02\/18\/exchange-rate-depreciation-and-growth-performance-an-empirical-analysis-of-nigerias-naira\/","title":{"rendered":"EXCHANGE RATE DEPRECIATION AND GROWTH PERFORMANCE: AN EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS OF NIGERIA\u2019S NAIRA"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>Download PDF<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div data-wp-interactive=\"core\/file\" class=\"wp-block-file\"><object data-wp-bind--hidden=\"!state.hasPdfPreview\" hidden class=\"wp-block-file__embed\" data=\"https:\/\/journals.amssr.org\/grjesd\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2026\/02\/grjesd_1-EXCHANGE-RATE-DEPRECIATION-AND-GROWTH-PERFORMANCE_-AN-EMPIRICAL-ANALYSIS-OF-NIGERIAS-NAIRA-to_publish.docx.pdf\" type=\"application\/pdf\" style=\"width:100%;height:600px\" aria-label=\"Embed of grjesd_1 EXCHANGE RATE DEPRECIATION AND GROWTH PERFORMANCE_ AN EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS OF NIGERIA\u2019S NAIRA to_publish.docx.\"><\/object><a id=\"wp-block-file--media-0cbac428-6bdd-4963-8cd1-b7570c617fab\" href=\"https:\/\/journals.amssr.org\/grjesd\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2026\/02\/grjesd_1-EXCHANGE-RATE-DEPRECIATION-AND-GROWTH-PERFORMANCE_-AN-EMPIRICAL-ANALYSIS-OF-NIGERIAS-NAIRA-to_publish.docx.pdf\">grjesd_1 EXCHANGE RATE DEPRECIATION AND GROWTH PERFORMANCE_ AN EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS OF NIGERIA\u2019S NAIRA to_publish.docx<\/a><a href=\"https:\/\/journals.amssr.org\/grjesd\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2026\/02\/grjesd_1-EXCHANGE-RATE-DEPRECIATION-AND-GROWTH-PERFORMANCE_-AN-EMPIRICAL-ANALYSIS-OF-NIGERIAS-NAIRA-to_publish.docx.pdf\" class=\"wp-block-file__button wp-element-button\" download aria-describedby=\"wp-block-file--media-0cbac428-6bdd-4963-8cd1-b7570c617fab\">Download<\/a><\/div>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Authors<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Gabriel A. Anidiobu, PhD,<sup>1<\/sup>&nbsp; Felix N. Ezeji, PhD<sup>2 <\/sup>&amp; Aloysius E. Agada, PhD<sup>3<\/sup><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><sup>1<\/sup>Department of Banking and Finance<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Enugu State University of Science and Technology, Agbani, Nigeria<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><sup>2<\/sup>Research &amp; Planning Department<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Nigerian Maritime Administration &amp; Safety Agency, Lagos, Nigeria<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><sup>3<\/sup>Department of Business Administration<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Cosmopolitan International Business School, Abuja, Nigeria<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Corresponding Author:\u00a0 +2347036610673; <em>gabriel.anidiobu@esut.edu.ng<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>ABSTRACT<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Research Purpose: <\/strong>This research examined whether exchange rate depreciation measured by real effective exchange rate (REER) functions as a driver of economic performance, measured by GDP growth rate (GDPGR) and gross fixed capital formation (GFCF).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Design\/Methodology\/Approach:<\/strong><strong> <\/strong>The study employed an <em>ex-post facto <\/em>design, utilizing annual time series data (1990\u20132024) from&nbsp; Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) and World Bank. It further adapted Adewole\u2019s (2023) Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) framework (1970\u20132022), which investigated short and long-run dynamics among exchange rate, foreign direct investment, inflation, trade balance and Nigeria\u2019s GDP as basis of our methodology.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Finding: <\/strong>REER had a positive but non-significant impact on GDP growth (coefficient = 0.07; p<strong> = <\/strong>0.12<strong> &gt; <\/strong>0.05; REER had a positive but non-significant impact on GFCF (coefficient = 0.12, p = 0.27 &gt; 0.05), and Structural breaks had a negative but non-significant impacts on REER\u2013GDP growth relationship (dummy coefficients = \u20130.11 (p = 0.32 &gt; 0.05)<strong>; <\/strong>\u20130.08 (p = 0.27 &gt; 0.05),<strong> <\/strong>and<strong> <\/strong>\u20130.15 (p = 0.29 &gt; 0.05))<strong>.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Implications:<\/strong><strong> <\/strong>Results indicate that REER exerted positive but non-significant impacts on GDP growth and GFCF, suggesting limited evidence of direct macroeconomic influence. Moreover, structural breaks weakened REER\u2013GDP growth relationship, though these impacts were also non-significant. Overall, findings imply that exchange rate movements and structural shocks did not materially drive Nigeria\u2019s growth trajectory during the study period, underscoring the predominance of other macroeconomic factors.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Originality\/Value Added:<\/strong><strong> <\/strong>Study added value by demonstrating that Nigeria\u2019s growth prospects depended on credible exchange rate stabilization and resilience to external shocks, while its integration of the Mundell\u2013Fleming Model provided a novel framework for explaining how naira depreciation, capital flows, inflation and oil price volatility jointly influenced GDP growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Keywords:&nbsp; <\/strong>Exchange Rate Depreciation, Economic Growth Performance, Nigeria\u2019s Naira, &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; Macroeconomic Stability and Empirical Analysis<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Download PDF Authors Gabriel A. Anidiobu, PhD,1&nbsp; Felix N. Ezeji, PhD2 &amp; Aloysius E. Agada, PhD3 1Department of Banking and Finance Enugu State University of Science and Technology, Agbani, Nigeria 2Research &amp; Planning Department Nigerian Maritime Administration &amp; Safety Agency, Lagos, Nigeria 3Department of Business Administration Cosmopolitan International Business School, Abuja, Nigeria Corresponding Author:\u00a0 +2347036610673; gabriel.anidiobu@esut.edu.ng ABSTRACT Research Purpose: This research examined whether exchange rate depreciation measured by real effective exchange rate (REER) functions as a driver of economic performance, [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":3281,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"0","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[20,42,41],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-3384","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-grjesd","category-vol-2-issue-1","category-volume-2"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/journals.amssr.org\/grjesd\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3384","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/journals.amssr.org\/grjesd\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/journals.amssr.org\/grjesd\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/journals.amssr.org\/grjesd\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/journals.amssr.org\/grjesd\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=3384"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/journals.amssr.org\/grjesd\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3384\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":3386,"href":"https:\/\/journals.amssr.org\/grjesd\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3384\/revisions\/3386"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/journals.amssr.org\/grjesd\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/3281"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/journals.amssr.org\/grjesd\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=3384"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/journals.amssr.org\/grjesd\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=3384"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/journals.amssr.org\/grjesd\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=3384"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}